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As northern China struggles, the south surges ahead

“Don’t invest beyond Shanhaiguan” is a popular quip in China, referencing a stretch of the Great Wall that leads to the northeast's industrial heartland. Recently, this saying has been humorously updated to “don’t invest outside the Southern Song,” a dynasty that fell nearly 750 years ago. Its territory roughly encompassed what is now southern China, where economic growth continues to outpace the north in nearly every sector.

Figures released on January 18, 2021, revealed that China’s GDP grew by 2.3% in 2020, with the economy showing signs of recovery. However, this growth was uneven, as manufacturing sectors operated at full capacity while consumer spending remained subdued. Experts anticipate that this imbalance will likely persist even after the pandemic subsides.

The south’s share of GDP has reached a peak of 65%, up from 59% in 2015. While some of this growth stems from favorable circumstances, such as the north’s struggles with falling commodity prices post-2013, the south has also benefited from structural economic shifts. The north, home to China’s largest coal reserves and heavy industries, has faced challenges adapting to the nation’s transition toward consumption and services-driven growth.

Northern officials have implemented aggressive measures to stimulate local economies, often at the expense of long-term sustainability. In 2013, during a peak year of China’s construction boom, investment in infrastructure and industrial assets in the north reached an staggering 66% of GDP, compared to 51% in the south. In contrast, southern officials have maintained a more cautious approach, allowing for organic economic development.

The southern regions, including powerhouse cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, are now the primary drivers of China’s economic growth. They account for the majority of the country’s high-tech manufacturing and exports, contributing a foreign-trade surplus of about 7% of GDP in recent years. Meanwhile, the north continues to grapple with a 2% trade deficit.

Adding to the region’s challenges, the north has experienced more frequent and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks. Geographical and climatic factors exacerbate the situation, as harsh winter conditions make virus transmission more likely. The north, often referred to as “China’s cold zone,” remains in a precarious position.